SIR-CA: Epidemic Modeling


Project Title: School’s Out? Designing Epidemic Containment Strategies with a Spatial Stochastic Method
Project Dates: 2009-2011

The Basics

A Typical Run

From a qualitative standpoint, a simulated epidemic started from one spot and then spread out across the grid, like a bacteria culture. Eventually it died out as there weren’t enough susceptible people nearby to infect, leaving some areas intact.


Numerically, the CA model in this work showed a slight peak in number of infected (red), while the number of recovered (green) followed a Logistic growth pattern. Hence, the CA model is in accordance with the traditional Kermack-McKendrick Model.

The paper

Designing Epidemic Containment Strategies with a Spatial Stochastic Method (pdf)

Verification with Novel H1N1 Surveillance Data